Experts from Kazakhstan believe that the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria will not yet affect the Central Asian countries. They consider the ‘sleeper cells’ of destructive movements within the country to be far more dangerous.
At the beginning of December, Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had been in power for 24 years, unexpectedly and quickly fell in Syria. A radical group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani, seized power.
The political changes in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime have raised concerns across Central Asia. For the past decade, secular residents of all five Central Asian countries associated Syria with the Islamic State radical movement (IS, recognised as a terrorist organisation in Kazakhstan).
Tens of thousands of followers of this terrorist organisation, including those from Central Asia, came to Syria for what was called ‘jihad’, which was essentially just war and the defence of the specific group’s interests. Many of them were killed, while others continued fighting for other terrorist groups after the IS (banned in Kazakhstan) was defeated.
Women and children were returned to their home countries. Kazakhstan was the first Central Asian country to repatriate 595 people.
Experts interviewed by CABAR.asia discuss how the current situation in Syria might affect Central Asian countries, and Kazakhstan in particular.
According to Rasim Chelidze, a theologian at the Association of Religious Research Centres of Kazakhstan, there is no immediate danger for Central Asian countries, though risks always exist.
“The Arab Spring, which began in 2010, has not ended; it has merely entered a ‘remission’ state,” Chelidze believes. The expert predicts internal fragmentation in Syria along religious, national, and territorial lines.
According to the theologian, the Syrian scenario, involving the execution of Bashar al-Assad’s relatives and the looting of property, is nearly identical to the Libyan or Egyptian scenarios.
“Ahmed al-Sharaa, now known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the de facto leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the founder of the al-Nusra Front organisation (recognised as a terrorist organisation in Kazakhstan), comes from a family engaged in a political fight. Religion has always been a core part of their political activities,” said Chelidze.
Chelidze draws an analogy between the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in 2012 (banned in Kazakhstan) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria.
“Power lasted only a year there before it was overthrown in a coup. The Muslim Brotherhood’s religious beliefs are based on reformist neo-Salafism, traces of which are already evident in the words of Syria’s new leader,” Chelidze said.
Research shows that the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Kazakhstan) was more radical and actively fought since the early 1970s. Their primary goal was “establishing Islamic order and uniting Islamic states”.
“Now, almost all sources claim that HTS came to power with Turkey’s support. This has threatened the influence of both Russia and Iran in Syria. Turkey is now at the apex of this political triangle,” the expert stated.
Chelidze believes the world faces a new challenge: the politicisation of religion. Therefore, there are risks of radical religious groups’ relocation to Syria.
“The idealisation of political Islam could lead to the migration of ideologically religious groups to Syria or the consolidation of radical groups with opposition cells within Kazakhstan,” the theologian explained.
Gulnaz Razdykova, a national expert for rehabilitation programmes for extremist movements’ adherents in Kazakhstan, believes that Syria is currently unattractive to the Kazakh segment of destructive religious movements.
The reason lies in the absence of ethnic Kazakh jamaats (from Arabic: society, collective, community) in Syria. She notes that mobilisation calls have been made already, but they did not target Kazakhs.
“I personally saw such a call, but it was for Dagestanis and peoples of the Caucasus. Such calls will have no impact on Kazakh extremists. The call was in Russian, specifically for the North Caucasus. It is likely that ‘offended and oppressed’ individuals may leave from there. However, a massive and systemic exodus like that in 2013–2015 is unlikely,” Razdykova predicts.
So far, according to her observations, there is no interest from former adherents of destructive religious movements in Kazakhstan in the ideology of the groups that came to power in Syria.
“They are not particularly attracted to these changes. They, of course, cheer that Muslim rights will be respected and that this will become another Islamic territory. However, there is no rhetoric of support among Kazakh jamaats. The ideology of these groups simply is not attractive,” Gulnaz Razdykova explains.
The expert predicts that if Syria’s new government fails to develop a competent strategy, Syria’s territory could fragment further. All neighbouring countries have their own territorial claims.
“Radicalism and fanaticism won’t play a decisive role there; they will be secondary factors,” Razdykova adds.
Her only concern is the Al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria, which hosts not only refugees but also families of former ISIS fighters.
“I assume the Syrian government may grant them freedom and allow these people to live there regardless of citizenship. If they agree to the new authorities’ terms and a peaceful future, it would be the best outcome for Syria,” Razdykova believes.
International journalist Shahida Tulaganova shares the concerns about the Al-Hol camp. She has visited war-torn Syria multiple times, covering the civil war in the country since 2014. Shahida is the producer of the documentary film ‘Cries from Syria’, released on HBO in 2017.
“What will now happen to Al-Hol and the prisons in Syria that housed ISIS fighters? These were overseen by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. I am curious about who controls these prisons now, where these questionable individuals are placed, and what will happen with Al-Hol. How will this issue be solved? Assad did not care about them; it was not a territory under his control. And now, when we are talking about a united Syria, this issue must be resolved. However, it is not Kazakhstan’s problem. Kazakhstan has repatriated all its citizens. It is not a problem of all Central Asia. It is a problem for Europeans and Americans,” the journalist commented.
Tulaganova believes that Central Asian countries do not need to fear radical calls to Syria because the new authorities of the country do not need this.
Unlike other Kazakh experts, she considers Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as “purely Syrian”, as it never aimed to establish a global jihad. This is not their goal in Syria, she believes.
In her opinion, the leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, will seek conciliation with Israel. She cites his public statements on women’s rights, the non-mandatory wearing of the hijab, and coexistence among various confessions and ethnicities as another element of secularism (the process of reducing the role of religion in society).
Syria is a highly educated country, Tulaganova said.
“Even during this terrible war, women continued to study and work there, and there is no turning back. In addition, many Syrian opposition figures who now make up the Syrian National Army, are secular. Sharia law is out of the question. This is impossible in the situation in Syria, and all parties understand this very well,” the international journalist said.
This is evidenced by the new authorities’ amnesty for reservists and Bashar al-Assad’s soldiers. The authorities urge all citizens who fled Syria to return.
“We see these queues forming at the Turkish-Syrian border: people are going home. This is the only call from the new government,” she says.
Life in Damascus is returning to normal, Tulaganova observes. Even Julani’s switch from military attire to a suit suggests that by doing so, he is signalling to people “that Syria’s secular values and respect for all minorities will be observed”.
“Initially, there was uncertainty about how things would go after the revolution, but the new administration declared that bars could work. Al-Julani himself told Christians they could celebrate Christmas, and Christmas trees are already set up in Christian districts,” Shahida Tulaganova said.
Thus, comparing Syria’s new government to the Taliban is unjustified, she emphasises.
“The Taliban represents outright misogyny and an uneducated population. Al-Julani, by contrast, comes from an educated family. His mother is educated, and there is no reason to expect any deviation from these principles,” Tulaganova said.
Renowned Kazakh political scientist and Majilis (Lower House of the Parliament) deputy Aidos Sarym believes Syria’s new administration will aim to expel the radical population from the country. He sees a danger to Central Asia in this aspect.
“Where will they go next? Which region of the world will they find a place for themselves? That is a big question our security agencies need to carefully consider,” he forecasts.
Additionally, within Syria itself, the risk of new radical groups emergence and competing for power remains, he notes.
“Today, the world seems inclined to remove HTS from the list of terrorist organisations, following the example of the Taliban. This will shift the nuances somewhat. However, I repeat, when generations have grown up holding a gun in their hands, when quite many young people have grown up holding religious teachings in one hand and a Kalashnikov in the other, it is quite difficult for these individuals to quickly adapt to peaceful life,” he concluded.
Cover photo: Bekir Kasim/Anadolu/picture alliance